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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-29T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-29T22:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47179/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the NNE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, likely obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and not in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap starting at 2026-06-29T19:38Z. The source is associated with an M1.4 class flare from AR 14479 peaking at 2026-06-29T21:40Z observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed in SDO AIA 171/193 as brightening, field line movement, and slight dimming following the flare. The CME front appears deflected slightly NE from the source region. An arrival signature is seen at SOLAR-1 around 2026-07-03T11:17Z but further analysis indicates it is due to other CME associations and this CME was likely not observed, closing as non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47181/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-29T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=30.0, Speed=526.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2026-06-30T04:22Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-03T11:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_042200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-30T00:55Z

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